Brace Yourselves, Turbulence Is Going to Get Much Worse

If you're someone who goes pale as soon as the first bumps of turbulence disturb a smooth flight, we have some unwelcome news for you: Climate change is expected to increase the odds you'll be stuck on a flight with turbulence, according to a new study in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. (Given that turbulence is a big source of anxiety for lots of us, this is yet another example of how climate change is affecting our mental health.)

Turbulence is air movement that can't be seen, but you definitely feel it. While it can be jarring and often unexpected, it's not a sign the plane is in peril. Still, "even light turbulence, which is far too weak to cause any physical harm…can really distress nervous fliers," says study author Paul D. Williams, an associate professor of meteorology at the University of Reading in the UK. More severe turbulence has the potential to throw you from your seat. How's that for travel anxiety?

Williams calculated that, by later this century, rates of light turbulence could increase by 59 percent, moderate turbulence by 94 percent, moderate-to-severe turbulence by 127 percent, and severe turbulence by 149 percent.

This means that "a pilot crossing the Atlantic will be faced with two or three times as much [severe] turbulence en route," explains Williams. He notes that severe turbulence is strong enough to hospitalize people like passengers who are seated and unbuckled or are walking around, as well as flight attendants, all of whom who could fall or be thrown against parts of the cabin. Naturally, pilots try to avoid flying into these jet streams, but should severe turbulence increase, pilots might need to take diversions, making flights longer and using more fuel, he says.

What does climate change have to do with this? Because of carbon dioxide emissions, the atmosphere is warming, but not uniformly. That means that low-latitude tropical regions are warming more than high-latitude Arctic ones, Williams says. The temperature difference ultimately leads to a stronger jet stream, which can boost the rate of what's called clear-air turbulence. (Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are expected to be double the pre-industrial amounts by the middle of the century; this is what Williams based his calculations on.) And taking longer fuel-guzzling routes to avoid turbulence will only increase emissions, compounding the problem.

He also notes in the study other ways climate change can impact flights: Rising sea levels could threaten coastal airports; warmer temperatures at airports changes surface air density on runways and can lower planes' maximum take-off weights, which can bump people from flights (the frequency of this happening is expected to increase by as much as 200 percent by 2050, per other research); and more frequent lightning strikes will likely contribute to delays.

Though Williams' research looked at transatlantic flights in the winter, the effect, he believes, would be far more widespread, encompassing trans-Eurasian and transpacific flights, and would happen in other seasons, too. His research on these other flight routes is ongoing.

Future fears aside, turbulence can and does happen, so you should still buckle up when your ass is in the seat. "Most of the injuries caused by turbulence occur to passengers and flight attendants whose seatbelts were unbuckled when the turbulence struck," he says. In the US, the Federal Aviation Administration says about 58 unbuckled people are injured by turbulence each year. There have also been three turbulence-related deaths between 1980 and 2008. Overall, flying is a very safe form of transport, Williams says, but trust, us, you do not want to be one of those 58 people.

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